Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5074 American flown by PSA Flight history →	OMA 07:28	PHL 11:38	8%	3%	1.2%	95%
OH 5195 PSA	OMA 13:48	PHL 17:55	12%	5%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest	3h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679	7h 43m	99%	91%
United Details →	OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442	2h 46m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:08UA 1575	8h 08m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:41DL 1136	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → PHL 12:15DL 2279	5h 50m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	OMA 08:10 → SLC 09:52DL 3874 · flown by SkyWest	1h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:25 → PHL 17:43DL 2022	8h 33m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	OMA 07:50 → ATL 11:02DL 1157	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → PHL 15:58DL 1692	7h 08m	99%	83%
United Details →	OMA 09:06 → DEN 09:55UA 2838	3h 58m Denver	DEN 13:53 → PHL 19:36UA 2787	9h 30m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	OMA 15:55 → ATL 19:12DL 2364	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	8h 04m	99%	80%
American Details →	OMA 06:20 → CLT 09:58AA 1042	3h 04m Charlotte	CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573	7h 30m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	OMA 15:19 → ORD 17:05UA 739	54m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → PHL 21:19UA 1776	5h 00m	73%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON