tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2690 at 17:07, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2690 Southwest OMA 17:07 SAN 18:22 21% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest 1h 30m Minneapolis MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121 6h 38m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → OMA 08:05 → MSP 09:30DL 3512 · flown by SkyWest 1h 59m Minneapolis MSP 11:29 → SAN 13:25DL 2125 7h 20m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → OMA 08:10 → SLC 09:52DL 3874 · flown by SkyWest 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 5h 58m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest 3h 03m Detroit DTW 12:31 → SAN 14:14DL 761 9h 49m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:41DL 1136 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 43m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → OMA 10:28 → DTW 13:30DL 4055 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m Detroit DTW 16:35 → SAN 18:14DL 369 9h 46m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → OMA 09:06 → DEN 09:55UA 2838 3h 35m Denver DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302 7h 49m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:15 → IAH 08:37UA 2399 3h 23m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 9h 06m 99% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON