tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 312 at 15:12, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 312 Alaska Flight history → OMA 15:12 SEA 16:54 14% 3% 0.6% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest 3h 49m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889 9h 00m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:41DL 1136 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 11h 25m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest 3h 01m Detroit DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728 10h 04m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → OMA 08:10 → SLC 09:52DL 3874 · flown by SkyWest 1h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 6h 39m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → OMA 07:50 → ATL 11:02DL 1157 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 14:28 → SEA 16:43DL 481 10h 53m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → OMA 15:03 → LAX 16:43AA 6506 · flown by SkyWest 2h 53m Los Angeles LAX 19:36 → SEA 22:19AA 6371 · flown by SkyWest 9h 16m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → OMA 10:28 → DTW 13:30DL 4055 · flown by SkyWest 3h 16m Detroit DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944 10h 14m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:15 → IAH 08:37UA 2399 3h 30m Houston IAH 12:07 → SEA 14:53UA 2228 10h 38m 99% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON