Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1623 United	OMA 07:01	SFO 08:47	10%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest	3h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	9h 09m	99%	82%
American Details →	OMA 15:03 → LAX 16:43AA 6506 · flown by SkyWest	3h 55m Los Angeles	LAX 20:38 → SFO 22:14AA 6260 · flown by SkyWest	9h 11m	100%	75%
United Details →	OMA 09:06 → DEN 09:55UA 2838	3h 30m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	8h 03m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469	9h 52m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	OMA 08:10 → SLC 09:52DL 3874 · flown by SkyWest	1h 13m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → SFO 12:07DL 902	5h 57m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:41DL 1136	59m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	8h 08m	93%	72%
Delta Details →	OMA 15:55 → ATL 19:12DL 2364	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 21:48 → SFO 23:57DL 656	10h 02m	98%	72%
American Details →	OMA 06:00 → LAX 07:41AA 6227 · flown by SkyWest	2h 11m Los Angeles	LAX 09:52 → SFO 11:36AA 6277 · flown by SkyWest	7h 36m	98%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	OMA 07:10 → ORD 09:01AA 3197	46m Chicago	ORD 09:47 → SFO 12:45AA 1851	7h 35m	65%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON