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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 22m Denver DEN 09:42 → AUS 13:02UA 1026 6h 02m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 3h 49m Denver DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943 8h 26m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 16m Phoenix PHX 08:46 → AUS 13:28AA 1059 5h 17m 90% 74%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 3h 01m San Francisco SFO 18:16 → AUS 23:50UA 2332 8h 00m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → ONT 12:00 → ATL 19:29DL 665 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 21:47 → AUS 23:14DL 1081 9h 14m 97% 74%
FrontierDetails → ONT 10:49 → DEN 14:10F9 2908 2h 01m Denver DEN 16:11 → AUS 19:27F9 1816 6h 38m 95% 73%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:03 → AUS 13:22AA 3054 5h 48m 95% 68%
AmericanDetails → ONT 08:24 → DFW 13:36AA 2893 3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:21 → AUS 18:22AA 3722 · flown by Envoy 7h 58m 96% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ONT 14:20 → DFW 19:36AA 2635 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:33 → AUS 21:37AA 2707 5h 17m 75% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON