tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 13:18, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Nashville on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1416 Southwest ONT 11:07 BNA 17:08 13% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 22m Denver DEN 09:42 → BNA 13:25UA 355 6h 25m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → ONT 12:00 → ATL 19:29DL 665 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → BNA 22:58DL 3121 8h 58m 99% 77%
FrontierDetails → ONT 06:00 → DEN 09:24F9 1500 1h 11m Denver DEN 10:35 → BNA 14:19F9 1402 6h 19m 91% 72%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 23m Phoenix PHX 08:53 → BNA 14:37AA 1370 6h 26m 92% 71%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:49 → ORD 12:53UA 2226 1h 23m Chicago ORD 14:16 → BNA 16:00UA 2142 7h 11m 95% 69%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 07:23 → PDX 09:43AS 544 47m Portland PDX 10:30 → BNA 17:00AS 1376 7h 37m 83% 65%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:51 → BNA 14:54AA 1084 7h 20m 97% 65%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 52m Denver DEN 17:30 → BNA 21:13UA 1300 5h 55m 78% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON