tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 3215 at 16:56, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3215 SkyWest ONT 16:56 BOI 20:00 9% 6% 0.9% no record
AS 2026 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record ONT 16:18 BOI 19:13 21% 8% 0.0% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:20 → SEA 09:15DL 3816 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Seattle SEA 12:30 → BOI 15:11DL 3959 · flown by SkyWest 7h 51m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 2h 17m Salt Lake City SLC 11:05 → BOI 12:23DL 2095 5h 23m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 3h 15m Denver DEN 11:35 → BOI 13:34UA 2255 7h 34m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 3h 47m Denver DEN 20:25 → BOI 22:37UA 5923 · flown by SkyWest 8h 19m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 2h 45m Phoenix PHX 10:15 → BOI 13:32AA 4080 · flown by Envoy 6h 21m 95% 83%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 07:23 → PDX 09:43AS 544 47m Portland PDX 10:30 → BOI 12:49AS 2089 · flown by Horizon 4h 26m 83% 79%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 17:32 → PDX 19:49AS 2456 · flown by Horizon 1h 49m Portland PDX 21:38 → BOI 23:55AS 447 5h 23m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 1h 27m San Francisco SFO 16:42 → BOI 19:44UA 5720 · flown by SkyWest 4h 54m 89% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON