tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Charlotte on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 33m Denver DEN 09:53 → CLT 15:17UA 2231 7h 17m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → ONT 12:00 → ATL 19:29DL 665 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 8h 58m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 1h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 10:30 → CLT 16:27DL 2070 7h 27m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 2h 25m Phoenix PHX 09:55 → CLT 17:10AA 665 7h 59m 94% 74%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696 7h 02m 95% 66%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 1h 07m Denver DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08UA 616 6h 50m 88% 63%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:35 → DFW 17:49AA 2956 2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:11 → CLT 23:45AA 460 8h 10m 96% 61%
AmericanDetails → ONT 10:23 → DFW 15:33AA 1820 2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:05 → CLT 21:55AA 1703 8h 32m 95% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON