Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2446 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 2446 ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 2908 ONT 10:49 → DEN 14:10 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2446 United Flight history →	ONT 05:00	DEN 08:20	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 3529 Southwest	ONT 06:47	DEN 10:05	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1782 Southwest	ONT 08:52	DEN 12:13	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 1500 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 06:00	DEN 09:24	12%	4%	0.7%	90%
WN 2154 Southwest	ONT 12:42	DEN 16:03	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1263 United Flight history →	ONT 13:18	DEN 16:38	14%	6%	0.6%	84%
F9 2908 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 10:49	DEN 14:10	16%	4%	0.7%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON