Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1412 at 05:34 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 1412 ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2635 ONT 14:20 → DFW 19:36 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1412 American Flight history →	ONT 05:34	DFW 10:41	8%	3%	1.4%	89%
AA 2893 American Flight history →	ONT 08:24	DFW 13:36	14%	4%	1.3%	87%
F9 4690 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 18:31	DFW 23:51	19%	13%	4.2%	76%
AA 1820 American Flight history →	ONT 10:23	DFW 15:33	20%	5%	1.6%	76%
AA 2956 American Flight history →	ONT 12:35	DFW 17:49	23%	8%	1.9%	71%
AA 2635 American Flight history →	ONT 14:20	DFW 19:36	23%	10%	2.0%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON