tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 43m Denver DEN 10:03 → EWR 15:59UA 2381 7h 59m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → ONT 12:00 → ATL 19:29DL 665 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 21:35 → EWR 23:46DL 2527 8h 46m 96% 65%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 1h 12m Denver DEN 17:50 → EWR 23:44UA 2613 7h 26m 90% 65%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 2h 32m Salt Lake City SLC 11:20 → EWR 17:41DL 2033 8h 41m 98% 64%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:49 → ORD 12:53UA 2226 3h 21m Chicago ORD 16:14 → EWR 19:31UA 249 9h 42m 99% 64%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 04m Phoenix PHX 08:34 → EWR 16:35AA 1327 7h 24m 90% 62%
AmericanDetails → ONT 13:03 → PHX 14:31AA 2661 1h 39m Phoenix PHX 16:10 → EWR 23:59AA 1967 7h 56m 89% 61%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 06:02 → SEA 08:44AS 607 1h 40m Seattle SEA 10:24 → EWR 18:17AS 292 9h 15m 96% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON