Saturday, October 10 · our forecast odds · issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1461 ONT 07:57 → HNL 10:58 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 2608 ONT 13:57 → HNL 17:08 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1461 Southwest	ONT 07:57	HNL 10:58	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 270 Alaska Flight history →	ONT 06:56	HNL 09:50	10%	3%	0.7%	86%
AS 2608 Alaska	ONT 13:57	HNL 17:08	13%	5%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375	1h 30m San Francisco	SFO 16:45 → HNL 19:25UA 1509	8h 35m	91%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON