tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 2h 00m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087 7h 53m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:49 → ORD 12:53UA 2226 1h 58m Chicago ORD 14:51 → IAD 17:49UA 587 8h 00m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → ONT 12:00 → ATL 19:29DL 665 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 9h 41m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:20 → SEA 09:15DL 3816 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m Seattle SEA 11:58 → IAD 20:04DL 541 10h 44m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 1h 22m Denver DEN 18:00 → IAD 23:32UA 2408 7h 14m 92% 74%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 1h 19m San Francisco SFO 16:34 → IAD 00:55 +1UA 1453 8h 05m 84% 68%
AmericanDetails → ONT 08:24 → DFW 13:36AA 2893 2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:21 → IAD 20:32AA 2254 9h 08m 95% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ONT 10:23 → DFW 15:33AA 1820 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:21 → IAD 20:32AA 2254 7h 09m 70% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON