tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 2267 at 05:56, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2267 United ONT 05:56 IAH 11:21 6% 2% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 3h 14m Denver DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 8h 09m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 3h 50m Denver DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419 8h 41m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → ONT 12:00 → ATL 19:29DL 665 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 9h 57m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 47m Salt Lake City SLC 09:35 → IAH 13:39DL 1532 5h 39m 89% 75%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 2h 03m San Francisco SFO 17:18 → IAH 23:09UA 1649 7h 19m 94% 75%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:50 → ORD 12:55UA 2226 3h 10m Chicago ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714 10h 20m 99% 74%
FrontierDetails → ONT 09:45 → LAS 11:05F9 2232 2h 01m Las Vegas LAS 13:06 → IAH 18:04F9 1966 6h 19m 95% 71%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 17m Phoenix PHX 08:47 → IAH 13:39AA 2357 5h 28m 91% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON