Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 454 JetBlue Flight history →	ONT 23:18	JFK 07:39	25%	6%	1.0%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	7h 47m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	ONT 18:01 → SEA 20:50DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452	9h 49m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	ONT 12:00 → ATL 19:29DL 665	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 22:33 → JFK 00:46 +1DL 1632	9h 46m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:20 → SEA 09:15DL 3816 · flown by SkyWest	2h 19m Seattle	SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415	10h 55m	97%	72%
Alaska Details →	ONT 07:23 → PDX 09:43AS 544	1h 04m Portland	PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18	9h 00m	92%	68%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	2h 26m Phoenix	PHX 09:56 → JFK 18:01AA 2339	8h 50m	94%	68%
American Details →	ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412	2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:11 → JFK 17:56AA 1058	9h 22m	98%	65%
American Details →	ONT 13:03 → PHX 14:31AA 2661	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 15:51 → JFK 23:58AA 832	7h 55m	87%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON