Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3267 at 05:47 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3267 ONT 05:47 → LAS 06:58 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4758 ONT 15:40 → LAS 16:51 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3267 Southwest	ONT 05:47	LAS 06:58	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2428 Southwest	ONT 09:37	LAS 10:54	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 2232 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 09:46	LAS 11:08	13%	6%	1.1%	84%
WN 3422 Southwest	ONT 15:07	LAS 16:24	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
F9 4758 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 15:40	LAS 16:51	28%	12%	1.6%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON