Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 29m Denver	DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446	7h 46m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	ONT 12:00 → ATL 19:29DL 665	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520	8h 24m	94%	79%
United Details →	ONT 06:49 → ORD 12:53UA 2226	3h 21m Chicago	ORD 16:14 → LGA 19:31UA 511	9h 42m	99%	72%
American Details →	ONT 10:23 → DFW 15:33AA 1820	3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:57 → LGA 23:37AA 1375	10h 14m	96%	66%
American Details →	ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412	2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:05 → LGA 17:45AA 672	9h 11m	97%	66%
American Details →	ONT 08:24 → DFW 13:36AA 2893	1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:58 → LGA 19:37AA 2434	8h 13m	93%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON