tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Seattle, leaving 18:01, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 18:01 → SEA 20:50DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest 2h 25m Seattle SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448 10h 39m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 50m Denver DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354 8h 04m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 2h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 11:14 → MCO 17:38DL 1691 8h 38m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 1h 14m Denver DEN 17:52 → MCO 23:41UA 259 7h 23m 91% 72%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:49 → ORD 12:53UA 2226 1h 51m Chicago ORD 14:44 → MCO 18:32UA 2654 8h 43m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → ONT 12:00 → ATL 19:29DL 665 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → MCO 00:15 +1DL 1162 9h 15m 99% 69%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 2h 28m Phoenix PHX 09:58 → MCO 17:32AA 603 8h 21m 94% 67%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:17 → MCO 16:04AA 1615 7h 30m 96% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON