tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 32m Denver DEN 09:52 → MIA 16:00UA 1418 8h 00m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → ONT 12:00 → ATL 19:29DL 665 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 9h 55m 99% 70%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 28m Phoenix PHX 08:58 → MIA 16:36AA 1968 7h 25m 93% 67%
AmericanDetails → ONT 13:03 → PHX 14:31AA 2661 1h 28m Phoenix PHX 15:59 → MIA 23:38AA 1222 7h 35m 88% 62%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:46 → MIA 16:48AA 2461 8h 14m 97% 56%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:35 → DFW 17:49AA 2956 2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:03 → MIA 00:03 +1AA 2090 8h 28m 95% 56%
AmericanDetails → ONT 10:23 → DFW 15:33AA 1820 2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:44 → MIA 21:50AA 2050 8h 27m 94% 53%
AmericanDetails → ONT 08:24 → DFW 13:36AA 2893 2h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:30 → MIA 20:35AA 3308 9h 11m 95% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON