tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Phoenix, leaving 06:11, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2226 United Flight history → ONT 06:49 ORD 12:53 11% 4% 0.7% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329 6h 15m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 3h 07m San Francisco SFO 18:22 → ORD 00:25 +1UA 1958 8h 35m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 3h 41m Denver DEN 20:19 → ORD 23:41UA 377 8h 23m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → ONT 12:00 → ATL 19:29DL 665 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 9h 53m 99% 73%
AmericanDetails → ONT 13:03 → PHX 14:31AA 2661 3h 29m Phoenix PHX 18:00 → ORD 23:34AA 2569 8h 31m 99% 69%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 2h 38m Phoenix PHX 10:08 → ORD 15:56AA 332 7h 45m 95% 67%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:20 → SEA 09:15DL 3816 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m Seattle SEA 11:58 → ORD 18:00DL 637 9h 40m 98% 66%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 06:02 → SEA 08:44AS 607 3h 10m Seattle SEA 11:54 → ORD 17:40AS 579 9h 38m 99% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON