Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 544 at 07:23, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 544 Alaska Flight history →	ONT 07:23	PDX 09:43	8%	2%	1.0%	94%
AS 2456 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	ONT 17:32	PDX 19:49	7%	2%	1.3%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708	2h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	6h 10m	98%	87%
United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	2h 56m Denver	DEN 11:16 → PDX 12:58UA 644	7h 58m	99%	86%
United Details →	ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263	2h 52m Denver	DEN 19:30 → PDX 21:15UA 498	7h 57m	97%	79%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	3h 15m Phoenix	PHX 10:45 → PDX 13:44AA 2684	7h 33m	96%	77%
United Details →	ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375	3h 41m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → PDX 20:43UA 1227	6h 53m	98%	76%
American Details →	ONT 13:03 → PHX 14:31AA 2661	3h 16m Phoenix	PHX 17:47 → PDX 20:39AA 1625	7h 36m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:20 → SEA 09:15DL 3816 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → PDX 11:41DL 3802 · flown by SkyWest	5h 21m	92%	74%
Alaska Details →	ONT 06:02 → SEA 08:44AS 607	3h 30m Seattle	SEA 12:14 → PDX 13:08AS 488	7h 06m	99%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON