Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3274 at 05:27 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 3274 ONT 05:27 → PHX 06:53 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2661 ONT 13:03 → PHX 14:31 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3274 Southwest	ONT 05:27	PHX 06:53	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1915 Southwest	ONT 09:22	PHX 10:48	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1194 American Flight history →	ONT 06:11	PHX 07:30	11%	4%	0.9%	92%
WN 3277 Southwest	ONT 16:55	PHX 18:15	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2661 American Flight history →	ONT 13:03	PHX 14:31	17%	5%	0.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON