Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 18–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5483 ONT 16:07 → SFO 18:05 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1375 ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5483 SkyWest	ONT 16:07	SFO 18:05	18%	12%	0.9%	no record
UA 1387 United	ONT 08:01	SFO 09:33	25%	8%	0.6%	no record
OO 5330 SkyWest	ONT 11:17	SFO 12:57	25%	13%	0.8%	no record
UA 1375 United Flight history →	ONT 13:50	SFO 15:15	25%	13%	0.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON