Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 3031 at 17:59, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 3031 SkyWest	ONT 17:59	STS 19:38	20%	6%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ONT 07:23 → PDX 09:43AS 544	1h 02m Portland	PDX 10:45 → STS 12:26AS 2330 · flown by Horizon	5h 03m	92%	84%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	2h 55m Phoenix	PHX 10:25 → STS 12:52AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	6h 41m	96%	80%
Alaska Details →	ONT 06:02 → SEA 08:44AS 607	2h 13m Seattle	SEA 10:57 → STS 12:53AS 1347	6h 51m	98%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON