Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2034 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2034 ORD 07:30 → ALB 10:43 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1382 ORD 18:33 → ALB 21:29 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2034 United Flight history →	ORD 07:30	ALB 10:43	10%	4%	0.6%	90%
AA 4240 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:04	ALB 18:16	21%	5%	0.9%	71%
OO 6233 SkyWest	ORD 08:27	ALB 11:44	22%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 3420 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 20:56	ALB 23:52	23%	5%	0.8%	76%
UA 2792 United Flight history →	ORD 12:02	ALB 14:59	23%	8%	0.8%	66%
UA 1634 United	ORD 14:44	ALB 17:44	24%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1382 United	ORD 18:33	ALB 21:29	30%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON