Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Seattle, leaving 06:55, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 461 United	ORD 16:19	ANC 19:53	26%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 375 American Flight history →	ORD 16:55	ANC 20:59	31%	8%	0.8%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 12:46 → MSP 14:29DL 1567	3h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377	11h 14m	96%	77%
United Details →	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:30UA 2803	2h 36m Denver	DEN 19:06 → ANC 22:50UA 280	11h 17m	91%	71%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:00 → SEA 15:44DL 1564	1h 51m Seattle	SEA 17:35 → ANC 20:23DL 2367	10h 23m	93%	69%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27DL 2041	1h 08m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922	9h 22m	91%	68%
Alaska Details →	ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407	3h 39m Seattle	SEA 22:01 → ANC 00:44 +1AS 1471	12h 01m	97%	65%
Alaska Details →	ORD 14:19 → PDX 16:54AS 325	1h 04m Portland	PDX 17:58 → ANC 20:40AS 1455	9h 21m	80%	64%
Alaska Details →	ORD 08:02 → SEA 10:37AS 587	2h 38m Seattle	SEA 13:15 → ANC 15:57AS 1381	10h 55m	95%	60%
American Details →	ORD 11:00 → DFW 13:32AA 1106	1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:15 → ANC 19:23AA 399	11h 23m	88%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769	53m Denver	DEN 19:06 → ANC 22:50UA 280	9h 38m	63%	49%
Alaska Details →	ORD 08:02 → SEA 10:37AS 587	1h 02m Seattle	SEA 11:39 → ANC 14:27AS 83	9h 25m	65%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON