Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 19–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4716 ORD 20:13 → ASE 22:15 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4914 ORD 19:37 → ASE 21:43 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4716 SkyWest	ORD 20:13	ASE 22:15	19%	7%	1.3%	no record
UA 5279 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:52	ASE 11:01	20%	7%	1.1%	64%
OO 4914 SkyWest	ORD 19:37	ASE 21:43	20%	7%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON