Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1264 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–43%.

Safest bet that day DL 1264 ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2096 ORD 16:32 → ATL 19:37 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1264 Delta Flight history →	ORD 05:30	ATL 08:29	8%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 1247 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:00	ATL 10:06	10%	3%	0.7%	88%
UA 2249 United Flight history →	ORD 07:14	ATL 10:10	13%	4%	0.6%	89%
UA 2684 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	ATL 13:44	15%	6%	0.6%	86%
DL 1687 Delta	ORD 08:09	ATL 11:04	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
F9 1596 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 07:05	ATL 10:30	16%	6%	1.2%	74%
UA 530 United Flight history →	ORD 09:28	ATL 12:25	17%	5%	0.6%	82%
DL 2894 Delta Flight history →	ORD 13:39	ATL 16:49	18%	5%	0.7%	72%
DL 1147 Delta Flight history →	ORD 11:16	ATL 14:21	19%	4%	0.8%	80%
AA 851 American	ORD 08:28	ATL 11:33	20%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 639 American	ORD 06:49	ATL 09:54	20%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 356 United Flight history →	ORD 13:55	ATL 17:10	21%	8%	0.6%	75%
DL 1477 Delta Flight history →	ORD 15:35	ATL 18:48	22%	8%	1.4%	76%
UA 2779 United	ORD 12:39	ATL 15:39	24%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 2910 American Flight history →	ORD 10:12	ATL 13:16	27%	6%	0.8%	75%
DL 1652 Delta	ORD 16:54	ATL 19:52	32%	9%	1.7%	no record
AA 616 American	ORD 13:01	ATL 16:05	33%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 1398 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	ATL 21:40	34%	12%	1.0%	58%
F9 1442 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 19:35	ATL 22:55	35%	12%	1.3%	62%
AA 3114 American	ORD 19:30	ATL 22:42	37%	12%	1.1%	no record
AA 2096 American	ORD 16:32	ATL 19:37	43%	13%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON