Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3774 at 00:02 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 3774 ORD 00:02 → ATW 00:54 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest OO 5611 ORD 17:16 → ATW 18:19 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3774 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 00:02	ATW 00:54	17%	2%	1.2%	78%
MQ 3475 Envoy	ORD 10:37	ATW 11:37	19%	4%	1.2%	no record
MQ 3341 Envoy	ORD 16:59	ATW 18:12	24%	6%	1.9%	no record
OO 5552 SkyWest	ORD 21:59	ATW 23:13	25%	10%	1.4%	no record
OO 409 SkyWest	ORD 11:00	ATW 12:03	29%	9%	1.6%	no record
OO 5609 SkyWest	ORD 12:42	ATW 13:46	30%	10%	1.4%	no record
UA 5987 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:09	ATW 19:22	30%	12%	1.3%	48%
OO 5611 SkyWest	ORD 17:16	ATW 18:19	31%	10%	1.2%	no record
UA 4495 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 22:00	ATW 23:23	12%	3%	8.1%	88%
UA 4479 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 13:55	ATW 15:09	21%	7%	0.0%	79%
UA 4460 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:25	ATW 11:43	22%	5%	0.0%	78%
UA 4475 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:45	ATW 14:05	24%	11%	6.2%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON