Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1336 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 1336 ORD 07:14 → AUS 10:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 935 ORD 21:16 → AUS 23:59 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1336 United Flight history →	ORD 07:14	AUS 10:05	8%	3%	0.7%	91%
UA 1688 United Flight history →	ORD 09:01	AUS 11:59	12%	4%	0.7%	83%
UA 1061 United Flight history →	ORD 11:47	AUS 14:41	15%	6%	0.7%	81%
AA 1121 American	ORD 08:25	AUS 11:18	19%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 1211 United	ORD 13:40	AUS 16:29	19%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 312 United Flight history →	ORD 19:58	AUS 22:54	26%	9%	0.6%	68%
AA 2433 American	ORD 19:08	AUS 22:06	31%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 438 American	ORD 15:00	AUS 17:53	34%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 935 American Flight history →	ORD 21:16	AUS 23:59	37%	10%	1.9%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON