Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 26–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5004 ORD 21:17 → BHM 23:11 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5721 ORD 12:27 → BHM 14:20 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5004 SkyWest	ORD 21:17	BHM 23:11	26%	10%	0.8%	no record
OO 6258 SkyWest	ORD 11:17	BHM 13:16	27%	11%	2.1%	no record
OO 5416 SkyWest	ORD 21:31	BHM 23:25	27%	9%	0.8%	no record
OO 5721 SkyWest	ORD 12:27	BHM 14:20	33%	12%	2.5%	no record
UA 4447 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 21:30	BHM 23:34	21%	9%	5.6%	79%
UA 4380 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:35	BHM 12:46	24%	0%	0.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON