tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 3498 at 09:55, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3498 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ORD 09:55 BIL 12:08 9% 2% 0.6% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Billings on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Billings is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:42UA 2666 1h 13m Denver DEN 07:55 → BIL 09:35UA 4762 · flown by SkyWest 5h 35m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:47 → BIL 12:54AA 4095 · flown by Envoy 8h 54m 99% 86%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407 2h 37m Seattle SEA 20:59 → BIL 23:51AS 2457 · flown by Horizon 9h 08m 94% 85%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:59 → DEN 08:49UA 1217 2h 56m Denver DEN 11:45 → BIL 13:22UA 703 7h 23m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769 2h 57m Denver DEN 21:10 → BIL 22:54UA 5257 · flown by SkyWest 7h 42m 91% 80%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:30UA 2803 2h 35m Denver DEN 19:05 → BIL 20:42UA 1417 7h 09m 92% 72%
DeltaDetails → ORD 15:55 → MSP 17:40DL 1533 1h 05m Minneapolis MSP 18:45 → BIL 19:59DL 2941 5h 04m 82% 72%
AmericanDetails → ORD 15:50 → DFW 18:27AA 2531 2h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:15 → BIL 23:13AA 3937 · flown by Envoy 8h 23m 89% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ORD 18:17 → DEN 20:22UA 1974 48m Denver DEN 21:10 → BIL 22:54UA 5257 · flown by SkyWest 5h 37m 69% 61%
UnitedDetails → ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769 52m Denver DEN 19:05 → BIL 20:42UA 1417 5h 30m 64% 50%
AmericanDetails → ORD 17:18 → DFW 19:56AA 2499 1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:15 → BIL 23:13AA 3937 · flown by Envoy 6h 55m 69% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON