Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3973 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 3973 ORD 06:40 → BNA 08:23 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2556 ORD 21:10 → BNA 22:47 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3973 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 06:40	BNA 08:23	9%	2%	1.0%	88%
UA 2073 United	ORD 07:00	BNA 08:47	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 3498 Republic	ORD 12:40	BNA 14:31	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 1674 United	ORD 08:51	BNA 10:35	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2414 United Flight history →	ORD 10:37	BNA 12:29	17%	5%	0.7%	82%
OO 4917 SkyWest	ORD 08:32	BNA 10:14	17%	5%	1.0%	no record
OO 4918 SkyWest	ORD 18:27	BNA 20:11	24%	11%	1.2%	no record
AA 2362 American	ORD 11:23	BNA 13:02	24%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 2142 United Flight history →	ORD 14:16	BNA 16:00	27%	9%	0.7%	69%
AA 2991 American	ORD 13:31	BNA 15:11	27%	8%	0.8%	no record
UA 314 United	ORD 21:50	BNA 23:31	28%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 1224 American	ORD 22:52	BNA 00:29	31%	8%	0.8%	no record
UA 1897 United	ORD 16:02	BNA 17:42	32%	11%	0.7%	no record
UA 739 United	ORD 18:53	BNA 20:22	35%	13%	0.7%	no record
AA 2556 American Flight history →	ORD 21:10	BNA 22:47	37%	10%	0.8%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON