Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 18–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2139 ORD 08:51 → BOI 11:36 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2353 ORD 11:35 → BOI 14:41 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2139 United	ORD 08:51	BOI 11:36	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 5290 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:45	BOI 22:56	23%	6%	1.0%	69%
AA 2353 American Flight history →	ORD 11:35	BOI 14:41	26%	5%	0.7%	81%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:42UA 2666	50m Denver	DEN 07:32 → BOI 09:28UA 255	5h 28m	80%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON