Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 25 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2828 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 2828 ORD 06:59 → BOS 10:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 407 ORD 17:18 → BOS 21:07 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2828 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:59	BOS 10:30	7%	2%	0.7%	87%
UA 1186 United Flight history →	ORD 06:15	BOS 09:40	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 659 United	ORD 07:44	BOS 11:07	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3022 American Flight history →	ORD 06:00	BOS 09:34	10%	2%	0.8%	97%
AA 3067 American	ORD 06:50	BOS 10:36	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 1367 United	ORD 09:23	BOS 12:55	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1606 United Flight history →	ORD 10:25	BOS 14:02	16%	6%	0.6%	82%
AA 802 American	ORD 09:06	BOS 12:47	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
B6 112 JetBlue	ORD 09:43	BOS 13:08	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 1608 Delta	ORD 11:37	BOS 15:03	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2578 American	ORD 10:30	BOS 14:15	22%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 1779 United Flight history →	ORD 21:41	BOS 01:14	24%	8%	0.6%	68%
UA 2401 United	ORD 13:14	BOS 16:31	26%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 1928 United	ORD 14:05	BOS 17:43	27%	10%	0.6%	no record
DL 2646 Delta Flight history →	ORD 16:30	BOS 20:11	27%	9%	0.8%	65%
UA 1365 United	ORD 20:08	BOS 23:32	30%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 487 United	ORD 15:52	BOS 19:28	31%	12%	0.6%	no record
AA 3107 American Flight history →	ORD 19:16	BOS 22:53	31%	10%	0.8%	56%
AA 2682 American Flight history →	ORD 20:29	BOS 00:05	32%	9%	0.7%	62%
AA 1479 American Flight history →	ORD 12:00	BOS 15:45	32%	10%	0.8%	50%
UA 2331 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	BOS 21:56	32%	11%	0.6%	59%
B6 1012 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 20:36	BOS 00:01	32%	13%	0.8%	71%
AA 2294 American	ORD 13:56	BOS 17:42	33%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 1162 American	ORD 15:50	BOS 19:37	34%	11%	0.8%	no record
AA 407 American Flight history →	ORD 17:18	BOS 21:07	36%	11%	0.8%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON