Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 265 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 265 ORD 06:19 → BUF 08:54 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1335 ORD 18:23 → BUF 20:51 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 265 United	ORD 06:19	BUF 08:54	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 4751 Republic	ORD 08:54	BUF 11:49	12%	2%	1.3%	no record
UA 580 United	ORD 14:14	BUF 16:47	24%	8%	0.8%	no record
OO 5275 SkyWest	ORD 11:00	BUF 13:36	25%	7%	2.2%	no record
AA 3013 American	ORD 14:34	BUF 17:28	31%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 564 American Flight history →	ORD 19:59	BUF 22:47	33%	11%	1.1%	57%
UA 1335 United Flight history →	ORD 18:23	BUF 20:51	34%	11%	0.7%	66%
UA 4382 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:25	BUF 13:13	27%	12%	2.1%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON