Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3762 at 07:12 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 3762 ORD 07:12 → BWI 10:17 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1557 ORD 18:10 → BWI 21:06 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:12	BWI 10:17	7%	2%	1.0%	93%
UA 1269 United Flight history →	ORD 07:44	BWI 10:37	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
AA 4253 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:54	BWI 12:59	11%	3%	1.0%	78%
UA 2653 United Flight history →	ORD 10:51	BWI 13:57	13%	4%	0.6%	83%
YX 4758 Republic	ORD 14:42	BWI 17:56	14%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 4663 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 18:28	BWI 21:40	17%	6%	1.2%	79%
UA 2737 United	ORD 14:44	BWI 17:48	20%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 220 United	ORD 20:03	BWI 23:06	26%	8%	0.6%	no record
F9 4064 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 12:54	BWI 16:05	27%	8%	1.5%	65%
UA 1557 United	ORD 18:10	BWI 21:06	30%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON