Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 5620 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–27%.

Safest bet that day OO 5620 ORD 06:52 → CAE 10:05 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5594 ORD 18:21 → CAE 21:25 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5620 SkyWest	ORD 06:52	CAE 10:05	13%	6%	1.0%	no record
YX 4529 Republic	ORD 20:33	CAE 23:43	17%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 4275 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:24	CAE 16:29	18%	4%	3.2%	76%
OO 750 SkyWest	ORD 14:31	CAE 17:38	27%	11%	1.4%	no record
UA 5594 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:21	CAE 21:25	27%	13%	1.1%	54%
UA 4528 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 07:10	CAE 10:28	13%	3%	0.0%	87%
UA 4523 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 13:55	CAE 17:05	23%	10%	2.8%	77%
UA 4478 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 17:55	CAE 21:16	27%	14%	6.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON