Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2112 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 2112 ORD 07:14 → CHS 10:23 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 823 ORD 19:34 → CHS 23:07 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2112 United	ORD 07:14	CHS 10:23	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2631 United	ORD 10:51	CHS 14:09	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2154 American	ORD 09:53	CHS 13:24	22%	6%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3868 Envoy	ORD 15:59	CHS 19:19	25%	5%	2.3%	no record
UA 4664 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:46	CHS 18:16	26%	8%	1.7%	76%
UA 2362 United Flight history →	ORD 18:25	CHS 21:48	30%	10%	4.0%	63%
AA 823 American	ORD 19:34	CHS 23:07	31%	10%	5.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON