Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 3732 at 10:14 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–31%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3732 ORD 10:14 → CID 11:29 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 254 ORD 21:21 → CID 22:25 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3732 Envoy	ORD 10:14	CID 11:29	13%	3%	1.5%	no record
AA 4231 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:57	CID 00:01	18%	4%	2.4%	72%
MQ 3385 Envoy	ORD 18:54	CID 20:10	20%	5%	2.3%	no record
G7 4175 GoJet	ORD 09:00	CID 09:50	22%	3%	2.5%	no record
G7 4562 GoJet	ORD 13:45	CID 14:59	24%	5%	2.7%	no record
OO 5474 SkyWest	ORD 20:24	CID 21:43	25%	7%	2.1%	no record
OO 6285 SkyWest	ORD 12:04	CID 13:22	26%	8%	2.5%	no record
OO 5544 SkyWest	ORD 16:19	CID 17:37	30%	9%	2.7%	no record
UA 254 United	ORD 21:21	CID 22:25	31%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON