Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1488 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 1488 ORD 07:15 → CLE 09:44 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest MQ 3912 ORD 17:44 → CLE 20:02 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1488 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	CLE 09:44	7%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 6363 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:38	CLE 09:11	13%	4%	0.8%	78%
UA 2389 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	CLE 12:58	15%	5%	0.6%	83%
UA 1502 United Flight history →	ORD 14:20	CLE 16:54	19%	7%	0.6%	79%
OO 5480 SkyWest	ORD 09:29	CLE 11:59	19%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 1878 United Flight history →	ORD 13:05	CLE 15:28	19%	7%	0.6%	70%
OO 4932 SkyWest	ORD 10:17	CLE 12:45	22%	7%	0.9%	no record
OO 4904 SkyWest	ORD 13:53	CLE 16:22	25%	11%	0.9%	no record
UA 457 United Flight history →	ORD 21:20	CLE 23:49	25%	8%	0.6%	57%
MQ 3838 Envoy	ORD 21:15	CLE 23:36	26%	5%	1.2%	no record
OO 4937 SkyWest	ORD 12:00	CLE 14:30	28%	9%	1.0%	no record
OO 5477 SkyWest	ORD 16:19	CLE 18:46	29%	9%	1.2%	no record
UA 2652 United Flight history →	ORD 17:45	CLE 20:13	29%	10%	0.6%	58%
MQ 3912 Envoy	ORD 17:44	CLE 20:02	31%	6%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON