Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2842 at 05:07 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2842 ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3188 ORD 16:48 → CLT 19:43 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2842 American Flight history →	ORD 05:07	CLT 08:10	9%	2%	1.0%	90%
YX 3426 Republic	ORD 06:56	CLT 09:42	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1784 American Flight history →	ORD 06:30	CLT 09:37	15%	3%	0.9%	84%
AA 411 American	ORD 08:07	CLT 11:15	19%	5%	1.2%	no record
YX 3518 Republic	ORD 14:06	CLT 17:26	19%	6%	1.5%	no record
AA 2080 American Flight history →	ORD 09:03	CLT 12:07	20%	5%	1.0%	84%
OO 5644 SkyWest	ORD 11:14	CLT 14:32	23%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 3021 American	ORD 11:50	CLT 14:54	24%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 2976 American Flight history →	ORD 20:54	CLT 23:59	26%	8%	1.0%	62%
AA 689 American Flight history →	ORD 18:48	CLT 22:00	31%	10%	1.1%	68%
AA 1409 American Flight history →	ORD 13:21	CLT 16:23	31%	9%	1.4%	63%
UA 1748 United Flight history →	ORD 18:15	CLT 21:29	32%	12%	0.8%	43%
AA 3188 American	ORD 16:48	CLT 19:43	35%	10%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON