Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 451 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 451 ORD 07:00 → CMH 09:32 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 1278 ORD 18:40 → CMH 20:58 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 451 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	CMH 09:32	6%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 3414 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:25	CMH 09:52	8%	2%	0.9%	87%
YX 3565 Republic	ORD 13:04	CMH 15:39	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
YX 3592 Republic	ORD 09:35	CMH 11:31	12%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 3614 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:45	CMH 22:24	13%	4%	0.8%	73%
AA 4445 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:54	CMH 23:32	13%	4%	0.8%	72%
UA 2063 United	ORD 10:56	CMH 13:19	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3815 Envoy	ORD 12:08	CMH 14:29	17%	4%	1.1%	no record
UA 1069 United Flight history →	ORD 14:18	CMH 16:53	18%	7%	0.6%	69%
AA 6346 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:17	CMH 12:46	18%	5%	1.2%	71%
AA 3447 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:30	CMH 22:04	20%	5%	0.9%	66%
AA 3542 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:16	CMH 17:35	21%	4%	1.1%	84%
MQ 3917 Envoy	ORD 17:41	CMH 20:07	22%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 1492 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	CMH 23:59	24%	8%	0.6%	67%
UA 1278 United	ORD 18:40	CMH 20:58	33%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON