Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 3680 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–37%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3680 ORD 07:07 → CVG 09:33 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1007 ORD 21:20 → CVG 23:36 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3680 Envoy	ORD 07:07	CVG 09:33	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 1970 United	ORD 07:00	CVG 09:18	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
YX 4455 Republic	ORD 22:07	CVG 00:29	16%	3%	0.9%	no record
YX 3593 Republic	ORD 16:43	CVG 19:17	18%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 3950 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 12:05	CVG 14:28	20%	5%	1.0%	80%
AA 3690 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:29	CVG 22:00	20%	5%	0.9%	74%
AA 4507 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 16:41	CVG 19:02	21%	5%	1.0%	93%worse than usual
OO 5266 SkyWest	ORD 11:02	CVG 13:31	24%	8%	1.3%	no record
G7 4531 GoJet	ORD 08:55	CVG 10:50	25%	4%	1.0%	no record
OO 5521 SkyWest	ORD 13:10	CVG 15:40	26%	9%	1.1%	no record
UA 1732 United Flight history →	ORD 17:59	CVG 20:21	30%	10%	0.6%	65%
UA 1223 United	ORD 21:23	CVG 23:36	33%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 1007 American	ORD 21:20	CVG 23:36	37%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON