Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 4494 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day YX 4494 ORD 05:50 → DCA 08:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2761 ORD 16:58 → DCA 19:57 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4494 Republic	ORD 05:50	DCA 08:54	6%	1%	1.0%	no record
AA 495 American	ORD 06:57	DCA 10:09	8%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 1077 United Flight history →	ORD 07:14	DCA 10:07	9%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 315 American	ORD 09:55	DCA 13:08	13%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 523 American Flight history →	ORD 08:56	DCA 12:03	14%	5%	1.0%	79%
AA 1200 American Flight history →	ORD 10:37	DCA 13:48	15%	6%	1.0%	61%
AA 2345 American Flight history →	ORD 08:00	DCA 10:59	15%	4%	1.0%	77%
UA 2668 United Flight history →	ORD 11:15	DCA 14:22	17%	6%	0.7%	69%
UA 1314 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	DCA 17:12	20%	7%	0.7%	56%
UA 2160 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	DCA 22:54	22%	8%	0.8%	56%
UA 1369 United Flight history →	ORD 18:00	DCA 21:10	22%	8%	0.7%	50%
AA 789 American	ORD 13:22	DCA 16:40	22%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 489 American Flight history →	ORD 17:02	DCA 20:16	22%	8%	1.0%	70%
AA 535 American	ORD 20:47	DCA 23:51	23%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 514 American	ORD 17:56	DCA 21:10	23%	8%	1.1%	no record
AA 1187 American Flight history →	ORD 18:57	DCA 22:10	24%	9%	1.0%	58%
AA 2769 American Flight history →	ORD 14:55	DCA 17:59	26%	7%	0.9%	74%
UA 2761 United	ORD 16:58	DCA 19:57	26%	8%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON