Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2666 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 2666 ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:42 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 2001 ORD 22:23 → DEN 00:01 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2666 United Flight history →	ORD 05:00	DEN 06:42	4%	2%	0.6%	98%
UA 1217 United Flight history →	ORD 06:59	DEN 08:49	8%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 2806 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	DEN 07:41	8%	2%	0.6%	97%
MQ 3964 Envoy	ORD 06:59	DEN 08:44	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 318 United	ORD 08:51	DEN 10:35	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1225 American	ORD 08:14	DEN 10:08	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2363 American Flight history →	ORD 09:45	DEN 11:41	18%	6%	0.7%	80%
UA 2857 United	ORD 11:07	DEN 12:50	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 1483 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 06:37	DEN 08:23	19%	5%	1.1%	71%
UA 2803 United Flight history →	ORD 14:33	DEN 16:30	20%	7%	0.6%	76%
UA 2324 United	ORD 13:40	DEN 15:21	23%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1974 United Flight history →	ORD 18:17	DEN 20:22	24%	7%	0.5%	58%
UA 2769 United Flight history →	ORD 16:12	DEN 18:13	26%	8%	0.6%	61%
AA 1277 American	ORD 12:01	DEN 13:53	27%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 767 United Flight history →	ORD 21:51	DEN 23:23	27%	5%	0.5%	71%
UA 1882 United	ORD 16:34	DEN 18:23	28%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 2809 United	ORD 12:59	DEN 14:38	29%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 329 United Flight history →	ORD 19:50	DEN 21:22	31%	6%	0.6%	75%
AA 1387 American Flight history →	ORD 18:43	DEN 20:41	32%	8%	0.6%	57%
AA 1317 American	ORD 15:10	DEN 17:03	32%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 2001 American	ORD 22:23	DEN 00:01	33%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON