Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 4955 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day OO 4955 ORD 07:16 → DSM 08:52 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4933 ORD 12:44 → DSM 14:12 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4955 SkyWest	ORD 07:16	DSM 08:52	15%	5%	1.1%	no record
UA 466 United	ORD 09:18	DSM 10:37	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 4402 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 22:24	DSM 23:50	17%	5%	1.0%	80%
YX 4769 Republic	ORD 15:59	DSM 17:36	19%	6%	1.1%	no record
UA 1658 United	ORD 13:00	DSM 14:23	20%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 1839 United Flight history →	ORD 21:29	DSM 23:00	24%	10%	0.6%	60%
OO 4659 SkyWest	ORD 21:56	DSM 23:17	24%	10%	1.2%	no record
OO 4890 SkyWest	ORD 18:02	DSM 19:34	27%	11%	1.1%	no record
OO 5412 SkyWest	ORD 11:42	DSM 13:02	27%	8%	1.3%	no record
UA 2836 United	ORD 16:34	DSM 17:53	28%	10%	0.7%	no record
OO 4933 SkyWest	ORD 12:44	DSM 14:12	29%	10%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON