Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2039 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 2039 ORD 07:05 → DTW 09:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 642 ORD 18:33 → DTW 20:41 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2039 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:05	DTW 09:30	8%	2%	0.8%	87%
YX 3706 Republic	ORD 07:01	DTW 09:16	10%	2%	0.9%	no record
YX 3632 Republic	ORD 09:01	DTW 11:34	11%	2%	0.9%	no record
DL 2840 Delta	ORD 09:00	DTW 11:23	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 3977 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:59	DTW 12:29	13%	3%	1.1%	91%
AA 6255 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 07:27	DTW 09:58	13%	4%	1.0%	93%
AA 3980 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:12	DTW 15:38	13%	4%	1.0%	86%
OO 3819 SkyWest	ORD 11:09	DTW 13:30	18%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 5756 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:50	DTW 13:27	18%	5%	0.9%	77%
OO 5882 SkyWest	ORD 13:24	DTW 15:45	23%	8%	0.8%	no record
OO 3958 SkyWest	ORD 13:57	DTW 16:18	23%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 4012 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 20:55	DTW 23:12	25%	4%	1.1%	100%worse than usual
DL 2358 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:18	DTW 19:50	25%	7%	0.8%	71%
UA 2632 United	ORD 15:58	DTW 18:15	27%	8%	0.6%	no record
OO 4885 SkyWest	ORD 19:07	DTW 21:44	28%	8%	1.0%	no record
MQ 3947 Envoy	ORD 17:01	DTW 19:14	28%	5%	1.3%	no record
UA 349 United	ORD 21:24	DTW 23:41	32%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 768 United	ORD 20:03	DTW 22:18	34%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 642 United	ORD 18:33	DTW 20:41	34%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON