tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: YX 3634 at 10:42 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3634 Republic ORD 10:42 ECP 13:16 13% 4% 0.8% no record
OO 4695 SkyWest ORD 12:57 ECP 15:31 25% 12% 1.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → ECP 12:40DL 2823 7h 10m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:39UA 1448 2h 26m Houston IAH 18:05 → ECP 20:03UA 4826 · flown by CommuteAir 7h 23m 93% 83%
UnitedDetails → ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:42UA 2666 3h 40m Denver DEN 10:22 → ECP 14:36UA 477 9h 36m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842 3h 57m Charlotte CLT 12:07 → ECP 13:00AA 5262 · flown by PSA 7h 53m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → ORD 13:39 → ATL 16:49DL 2894 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 18:58 → ECP 19:12DL 3053 5h 33m 93% 79%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:02 → ECP 12:13AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 7h 13m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → ORD 11:16 → ATL 14:21DL 1147 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:55 → ECP 16:06DL 3094 4h 50m 92% 76%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:35 → IAH 10:36UA 1231 3h 54m Houston IAH 14:30 → ECP 16:23UA 4902 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 48m 99% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:24 → IAH 17:16UA 2062 49m Houston IAH 18:05 → ECP 20:03UA 4826 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 39m 68% 61%
UnitedDetails → ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714 51m Houston IAH 20:01 → ECP 21:58UA 4343 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 53m 66% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON