tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3631 Republic ORD 15:52 ELP 18:31 20% 5% 0.7% no record
AA 3948 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ORD 21:19 ELP 23:37 29% 4% 0.7% 81%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → ELP 13:20DL 1002 8h 50m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:41UA 2806 3h 55m Denver DEN 11:36 → ELP 13:31UA 2128 8h 31m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → ORD 09:03 → LAX 11:24AA 1979 3h 10m Los Angeles LAX 14:34 → ELP 17:43AA 6453 · flown by SkyWest 9h 40m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:39UA 1448 1h 19m Houston IAH 16:58 → ELP 18:02UA 3983 · flown by Mesa 6h 22m 91% 76%
AmericanDetails → ORD 15:21 → LAX 17:43AA 529 2h 22m Los Angeles LAX 20:05 → ELP 23:09AA 4905 · flown by SkyWest 8h 48m 89% 76%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:24 → IAH 17:16UA 2062 2h 41m Houston IAH 19:57 → ELP 21:01UA 4009 · flown by Mesa 7h 37m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:35 → IAH 10:36UA 1231 3h 44m Houston IAH 14:20 → ELP 15:25UA 4275 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 50m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714 2h 30m Houston IAH 21:40 → ELP 22:44UA 4010 · flown by Mesa 7h 39m 93% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ORD 15:35 → ATL 18:48DL 1477 51m Atlanta ATL 19:39 → ELP 20:50DL 1713 6h 15m 74% 53%
UnitedDetails → ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714 47m Houston IAH 19:57 → ELP 21:01UA 4009 · flown by Mesa 5h 56m 58% 46%
AmericanDetails → ORD 17:18 → DFW 19:56AA 2499 1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:15 → ELP 22:05AA 1514 5h 47m 69% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON